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Wall Street to Your Street
December Recap: Fed Finally Lifts Rate as Year Comes to Close
December 31, 2015 | Jeff Branstad, CFA, Investment Product Management
Recap for month ended Dec. 31, 2015
The biggest investment story of the year finally found a conclusion when the Federal Reserve unanimously raised the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, the first increase after more than six years near zero. The rest of the month proved volatile resulting in many markets having relatively flat performance for 2015.
By the numbers
Market activity in December, as reflected in the most common market indexes we follow.
|Dow Jones Industrial Average1||-1.5%||0.2%||10.0%|
|S&P 500® Index2||-1.6%||-1.4%||13.7%|
|Russell 2000® Index3||-5.0%||-4.4%||4.9%|
|MSCI EAFE Index4||-1.3%||-0.4%||-4.5%|
|MSCI Emerging Markets Index5||-2.2%||-14.6%||-1.8%|
|Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index6||-0.3%||0.6%||6.0%|
|Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Index7||0.0%||-1.6%||27.5%|
|Barclays U.S. Corporate Investment Grade Index8||0.8%||-0.7%||7.5%|
|Barclays U.S. High Yield Index9||-2.5%||-4.5%||2.5%|
|Barclays Municipal Bond Index10||0.7%||3.3%||9.1%|
|U.S. Treasury Yields||As of|
|3-Month U.S. Treasury Bill||0.16%||0.22%||0.04%|
|5-Year U.S. Treasury Bond||1.76%||1.65%||1.65%|
|10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond||2.27%||2.21%||2.17%|
|30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond||3.01%||2.98%||2.75%|
Fed raises rates, now when’s the next one?
While investment markets were finally able to close the chapter on the debate over the Fed’s lift-off timing, the next pages of the book look quite similar to the last one. Now the debate begins around when the Fed will hike rates next, and how many times it’ll do so in 2016. Fed projections suggest four additional rate hikes, but investors are skeptical of that target. Futures markets are predicting just a 45% chance that the next rate hike will occur during the Fed’s March meeting, which is likely needed to stay on the Fed’s projected pace. The initial announcement prompted a slight run-up in treasury rates, but an uptick in global volatility has since sent money running to safer investments causing treasury yields to step back down.
The Fed will continue closely monitoring employment figures and inflation rates, as well as U.S. and global growth in GDP. While top-line measures of unemployment appear strong, the workforce participation rate is well below prerecession numbers and wage inflation has yet to take off. Inflation (less food and energy) has been ticking upward, but remains below the Fed’s 2% target, and GDP has similarly been steady but unimpressive. While the U.S. has been tightening its monetary policy, many other major economies have been easing theirs; for example, the European Central Bank cuts its deposit rate in December and extended its asset purchase program. This diverging set of policies has contributed to a strengthening dollar, which can make it challenging for U.S. exporters to compete in global markets.
Oil prices push into long-term lows
Crude oil prices have remained stubbornly low, ending the year below $40 a barrel, the lowest price in more than 10 years. Oil prices were comfortably above $100 a barrel just 18 months earlier. OPEC has maintained production in the face of the low prices in an attempt to drive out oil producers with higher breakeven rates, such as U.S. shale companies, leaving the marketplace with a supply glut. U.S. production has remained relatively steady, but declining rig counts and capital spending belt-tightening should eventually lead to a decrease in production. Low prices and even modest global growth will inherently lead to increased demand, too. While the near-term may continue to be painful for the oil industry, well-run, efficient businesses that can weather the storm will position themselves nicely for the inevitable rise in oil prices, whenever that may come.
In their Market Commentary, Thrivent Asset Management leaders discuss the financial markets, the economy and their respective effects on investors. Writers’ opinions are their own and do not necessarily reflect that of Thrivent Financial. Forecasts, estimates and certain other information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. From time to time, to illustrate a point, they may make reference to asset classes or portfolios they oversee at a macro-economic level. They are not recommending the purchase of any individual security. Asset management services provided by Thrivent Asset Management, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Thrivent Financial, the marketing name for Thrivent Financial for Lutherans.
Securities and investment advisory services are offered through Thrivent Investment Management Inc., 625 Fourth Ave. S., Minneapolis, MN 55415, a FINRA and SIPC member and a wholly owned subsidiary of Thrivent Financial. Past performance is not a guarantee of future result.
1 The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an index of 30 "blue chip" stocks traded in the U.S.
2 The S&P 500® Index is a widely followed index, and is composed of 500 widely held U.S. stocks.
3 The Russell 2000® Index measures performance of small-cap stocks.
4 The MSCI EAFE Index measures developed-economy stocks in Europe, Australasia and the Far East.
5 The MSCI Emerging Markets Index measures developing-economy stocks.
6 The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index measures performance of a wide variety of publicly traded bonds.
7 The Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Index measures performance of longer maturity treasury bonds.
8 The Barclays U.S. Corporate Investment Grade Index measures performance of the investment grade bond sector.
9 The Barclays High Yield Index measures performance of the high yield bond sector.
10 The Barclays Municipal Bond Index measures performance of the municipal bond sector.